1

COVID-19: Managing Information, a key to control

STRANDOMS: the stray and random thoughts

March 29,2020

Prof. S. Ramkumar

Education

COVID 19 : Managing Information, a key to control

One of the important, if not the most is appropriate information delivery reaching every human being on the planet on advisories and guidelines to be followed to contain the spread of COVID 19. We are advised on “washing of hands with soap”, “social distancing” and “stay at home” to break the chain as the key modes of preventing the disease. However there is loads of information in every source that speaks on various aspects of this situation. How do we manage them in the best interest of the attempts of the Government in “containing the disease’? Information management by every citizen plays a key role.

This is about the “information” that COVID 19 situation generates and spins around the humanity of our planet. In simple terms it’s about how cautious we need to be as “managers of Information” on what we hear, listen, talk and spread – whatever maybe the media we depend on.

 

Ultimately, we need reliable, usable, understandable information to the extent it is needed. Anything less or more can unnecessarily add to the panic. This is being attempted to be explained by concept of (1) “positioned instinct” and (2) “satisficing”.

  1. I put forward a concept of “positioned instinct” Vs “displaced instinct” for the present time and era.

With innumerable number of information sources, the present day has no dearth of technology to transport information- spontaneously and instantly to any nook and corner of the globe. That is a great achievement that helps us to fight the unexpected disasters like the COVID 19 outbreak. As “techno sapiens” we have the nature of probing into an information. So far so good. With technology(ies) readily available, we have a tendency (which is good) to look into the situation and precautions to be taken. This is a human instinct, and responsibility. i.e. I look for specific information that should be equipped with in combating the spread of the disease. I am searching for information to satisfy “positioned instinct” which is a minimum need. But as techno sapiens our curiosity and anxiety make us move on the Information Highway, very fast than expected; from that specific information, to associated information, more, more and more…i.e the displaced instinct. Some lose their track, for some, information which was a curious object of satisfaction turns back on them, almost engulfing them. It’s like we start chasing the information and when it grows big, more than we can comprehend or handle in size and number, it starts chasing us and wrapping us around itself. Even if we run fast, it takes time for us to get relief from this massive, curious, overgrown object – “information”. This is “displaced instinct”, which is not so good at times of crisis.

Opinion formation through platforms (of TV, email, websites, fb, whatsapp twitter, instagram…) need to be analyzed quickly and sensibly. The “displaced instincts” or subjective interpretations of opinions thrown out irrationally can disrupt the very purpose of (social) media for humanity. It’s especially so in a situation of Disease control attempts like that of the present time.

As Government reiterates regularly only use reliable information sources to verify situation. Apply “positioned instinct” – specific to needs – reliable, timely and usable. Do not attempt to enter onto the Information highway- that can add to panic and anxiety. Even if we tend to enter, take exits appropriately, before information starts chasing you. We, as techno sapiens, need to evolve a behavior of “positioned instincts” within the media, especially in demanding crisis situations.

  1. “Satisficing” is a Scottish term that combines ‘satisfying” and ‘sufficing”. This has been interestingly analyzed by Edward O Wilson, the world renowned biologist and author, in his book CONSILIENCE; the unity of Knowledge (1998). I am quoting few lines from the book. In the Rational Choice Theory (RCT : first applied in Economics and later to other disciplines), the central concept is that above all else human beings are rational in their actions. They examine as best they can all the pertinent factors and weigh the likely outcome of following each potential choice in turn. They add in cost and benefit – investment, risk and emotional and material return – before deciding.

This is not an adequate picture of how people think. The human brain is not a very swift calculator, and most decisions have to be made quickly in complex settings and with incomplete information. So the question of importance in RCT is, how much information is enough? In other words, at what point do people stop reflecting and make up their minds? One simple strategy that provides a cut off point is ‘satisficing” -satisfying and sufficing. It means taking the first satisfactory choice encountered out of those perceived and reasonably available in the short term, as opposed to visualizing the optimum choice in advance and searching until it is found. Crisis situations demand quick and effective combating strategies, while the search for emerging truths of science has to be followed.

Let us be responsible in receiving, searching and disseminating information at this point of time. Information management by every citizen plays a key role!

Share

2

COVID-19: Through the Science of Chance

COVID-19

August 16, 2020

Prof. S. Ramkumar

COVID-19 : through the Science of Chance

(The COVID 19 pandemic is turning out to be a book mark of human history in this planet: the pre and post COVID 19 periods. Its rewriting the norms of life with only one concern : safety first. Lots of people dedicatedly devote in a moment-to-moment effort to contain and treat this disease. This writing is adding a different perspective to the present seen through the science of Chance)

The present COVID-19 situation raises challenges in every aspect of life- at different levels – primarily the concern of health (precautions and control of disease), which bears explicit and implicit effects on family, workplace, education, business, society and so on. Confinements of work-from-home, and moving out of home, only for essential purposes with social distancing are key in breaking the chain.

The New Scientist in 2015 published a book titled ‘Chance’ (the science and secrets of luck, randomness and probability) edited by Michael Brooks. The certain (and uncertain) paths that follow during the pandemic raises some interesting points discussed in ‘Chance’.

We tick through the present time – of unlearning and relearning; of innovating, experimenting, reflecting and sharing (at home, work and in society). We are getting transformed to become more enduring, perseverant and attempt to keep stability of emotions. Life moves on – not though in the same pattern in our planet prior to COVID-19 pandemic.

The thought that always runs in our mind are many like ‘Am I going to get infected; are any of my family, friends, colleagues or other fellow human beings going to be infected; how best can I prevent this’? The thoughts make us move through various feelings.

All these tend to lead us to think on different perspectives but primarily built on the word ’Chance’. What are the chances of all the above in the pandemic situation.

The section on “Biology’s Casino”–Chance in the Natural World, in the Book “Chance” provides a guidance of thought on this.

“Biological luck didn’t just get us where we are today. It also shapes where the natural world will be tomorrow. Survival of the fittest can be determined by an ability to generate randomness – may be to evade a predator, or to predict how a pathogen might evolve. Without the flexibility that random mutations provide, life might not survive Earth’s future challenges”.

(Chance: 2015, p163)

“Many biologists, most notably Richard Dawkins, therefore insist that although mutations may be random, evolution is not. This insistence might make sense when explaining evolution to people who have not grasped the basic concept. But there is an element of chance in evolution, even when natural selection is firmly in the driving seat.

Take the evolution of flu viruses. We can predict with confidence that, over the next few years, the structure of a viral surface protein called haemagglutinin will evolve so that the human immune system can no longer recognise and attack it. What’s more, we can be fairly sure that the mutations that allow new strains of flu to evade the immune system will happen at one of seven critical sites in the gene coding for haemagglutinin, according to Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. In this sense, the evolution of flu is non-random and predictable.

But it’s a matter of chance which of those seven sites mutate, and how. Predicting the course of flu’s evolution is almost impossible more than a year or two in advance, says Bedford. This is why flu vaccine makers do not always get right, and why flu vaccines are sometimes largely ineffective. “

(Chance: 2015, p163)

The science of Chance makes us try to understand the reality in a wider platform of life, so as to cope with probabilities of life. “Louis Pasteur’s contention that ‘Chance favours only the prepared mind’, is one to take seriously, as it turns out”. “…. Instead, it must fall into line with probability theory, which describes the behaviour of infinite randomness in finite world”.

Does the Science of ‘Chance’ bring us any solace in this pandemic situation? As mentioned earlier it introduces us to the perspective of viewing the pandemic within randomness and possibilities. The ‘Chance’ today for any person is dependent on appropriate wearing of mask, social distancing, Sanitizer/soap cleaning, early detection and treatment, and possibly the most awaited early arrival of an effective vaccine.

Scoping of chance to reduce the spread is key in writing the history for the future.

Share